Correlation Neglect
Definition
Correlation Neglect is the cognitive failure to account for the duplication of information from correlated sources, leading individuals to treat redundant messages as independent confirmation.
Real-world examples
An investor reads three separate newsletters recommending a stock, not realizing all three newsletters are summarizing the exact same press release, and becomes overly confident.
- Several analysts echoing one original report can feel like a broad consensus rather than a single source.
- Combining an expert's judgement with an AI that used the same data double-counts the shared signal.
How to design for it (nudge strategy)
Explicitly trace and group source references in data displays (e.g., '3 news outlets citing 1 primary source') to prevent users from forming exaggerated confidence based on redundant inputs.
The evidence (1)
- Radiology Diagnostic Integration and Human Underweighting
Healthcare · Diagnostic Classification Accuracy: 82.5% → 79.8% (+-2.7 pts) · n = 200 radiologists, 10,000 cases
Key research
- Correlation Neglect in Belief FormationBenjamin Enke, Florian Zimmermann · Review of Economic Studies (2019)
- Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from RadiologyNikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, Tobias Salz · NBER Working Paper Series (2023)
Related biases
Cite this page
Behavioral Economics Lab. "Correlation Neglect – Definition, Examples & Evidence." Behavioral Economics Lab, https://behavioraleconomicslab.com/biases/correlation-neglect.