Correlation Neglect
Edited by Paweł Raja, PhD · Published · Updated
Definition
Correlation Neglect is the cognitive failure to account for the duplication of information from correlated sources, leading individuals to treat redundant messages as independent confirmation.
Correlation Neglect examples
An investor reads three separate newsletters recommending a stock, not realizing all three newsletters are summarizing the exact same press release, and becomes overly confident.
- Several analysts echoing one original report can feel like a broad consensus rather than a single source.
- Combining an expert's judgement with an AI that used the same data double-counts the shared signal.
How to design for it (nudge strategy)
Explicitly trace and group source references in data displays (e.g., '3 news outlets citing 1 primary source') to prevent users from forming exaggerated confidence based on redundant inputs.
Ethical use: design for choices people would endorse on reflection — a nudge, not sludge. Be transparent and keep opting out easy.
The evidence (1)
- Radiology Diagnostic Integration and Human Underweighting
Healthcare · Diagnostic Classification Accuracy: 82.5% → 79.8% (+-2.7 pts) · n = 200 radiologists, 10,000 cases
Key research
- Correlation Neglect in Belief FormationBenjamin Enke, Florian Zimmermann · Review of Economic Studies (2019)
- Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from RadiologyNikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, Tobias Salz · NBER Working Paper Series (2023)
Related biases
Cite this page
Behavioral Economics Lab. "Correlation Neglect – Definition, Examples & Evidence." Behavioral Economics Lab, https://www.behavioraleconomicslab.com/biases/correlation-neglect.